Curse

Haggard · Feb 24, 2007, 01:43 AM // 01:43

Probably been threads on this before (hmm, that's the opening line of every thread I've ever made), but notice how the middle ring in 9 Rings still has a majority of about 60-70% of all the people there?

Surely with this being the third event of this kind, the community might have read the wiki article and possibly told each other to stand in the corner? Guess not. Seems a pointless thing to worry about but in such huge numbers that's a lot of people throwing cash away with minimal efficiency.

vojnik · Feb 24, 2007, 01:44 AM // 01:44

Question: why do you care?

Navaros · Feb 24, 2007, 01:48 AM // 01:48

This is a microcosm of the same reason why no one PUGs --- the average player cannot be expected to and almost never will play in a way that is even a little bit wise; even when it comes to AFK games.

Haggard · Feb 24, 2007, 01:50 AM // 01:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by vojnik

Question: why do you care?

I think my second paragraph summed that up, it's like watching half the population buy chocolate teapots.

BlueNovember · Feb 24, 2007, 01:53 AM // 01:53

All circles win the same amount, just corners help the unlucky title better.

Corners are prone to long losing streaks, so the centre may be a more viable option for those on a limited budget or small inventories.
That said, most people seem to be there because it "wins more". Meh.

1/2 way to Golden =) Yay for Gold sinks!

Kook~NBK~ · Feb 24, 2007, 02:14 AM // 02:14

It depends on what you're aiming for. It doesn't matter where you stand for the lucky title. The pay-out (number of tokens won), over the long term, is equal no matter where you stand. You win more often by standing in the center circle, but the pay out is less. Standing on the corners will cause you to lose more (helps for the unlucky title), but when you're circle is the winning circle, you are given a larger pay-out.

Senrath · Feb 24, 2007, 02:23 AM // 02:23

Center wins 20, edge wins 40, and corners win 55.

The Ernada · Feb 24, 2007, 02:27 AM // 02:27

Well you really shouldnt be surprised that some of the general population is ignorant of most things. Just look at how in every event there will aways be a dozen people at a given time spamming stuff like, "Wut do tokens do?!!" or "Wen duz teh pumpking king come?!!" over and over again instead of actually going to the GW site or talking to NPCS to find out themselves.

Haggard · Feb 24, 2007, 02:36 AM // 02:36

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kook~NBK~

It depends on what you're aiming for. It doesn't matter where you stand for the lucky title. The pay-out (number of tokens won), over the long term, is equal no matter where you stand. You win more often by standing in the center circle, but the pay out is less. Standing on the corners will cause you to lose more (helps for the unlucky title), but when you're circle is the winning circle, you are given a larger pay-out.

But why would you purposely avoid getting 2 titles, instead paying the same amount of money for just one?

scyfer · Feb 24, 2007, 02:42 AM // 02:42

Maybe some of us don't have a lot of faith in Anet's RNG?

Also the guild wiki article (http://gw.gamewikis.org/wiki/Luck_titles_guide) is shoddy; it's based on assumptions that aren't proven (namely the above assumption - RNG is accurate) and without actual comparisons of corners vs center vs sides and without ANY in game data. It's not an "analysis" of any sort, just one chart examining corners, and then a bunch of charts showing how much money you need for each level of each title. There's no math, no in game data, no logic, nothing - I'm not sure why you expect people to blindly follow that article. The article basically says this, without backup of any sort: "all locations are equally advantageous so here is an analysis of what you get standing on the corner." Yay?

edit: And yes, I can do high school probability too and I still prefer experimental evidence as opposed to blindly following the "analysis" presented. That being said, this is what I had as my results standing in the corner (and I'm redoing this in a bit to take in time, exact numbers and other locations too

485 tickets lost (~an hr, didn't account for time) on the corner, 2600 (10409 to 13189) lucky points gained, 281 losses gained. Now this is 5.36 lucky points per ticket and 0.58 losses per ticket; this is far different than the calculated win rate on the guild wiki article. Sure, you can argue that this is a string of bad luck lasting for an hour +, but to me this points to some statistically non randomness, even without working out the likelihood/p-values to test whether this result is out of the ordinary with current assumptions.

Meanwhile in the center (I've only started taking down notes): ~20minutes, 35 tickets lost total, 2100 lucky points (exactly, 13189->15289) and 89 unlucky losses earned. Sure ok, a bad streak on the corner and a lucky streak in the center you say? Fine, I'll take more data points down and keep counting, and then compare again.

But those quick looks to me show that if you don't want to be throwing out money nilly willy you should be doing 9 Rings for the lucky title, and the other one for the unlucky title, and standing in the center. But if you want the fastest time to both titles and have too much money, sure, stand in the corner at 9 Rings.

(And I didn't bother writing down exact numbers, but I am doing so, and with be doing a t-test to test the RNG, and calculating exactly how many games I played, etc. - if I get bored enough... I guess 8)).

Enko · Feb 24, 2007, 04:00 AM // 04:00

Statistically, they should all earn the same amount of tickets. The difference is that if you stand in the corner ring, you'll also earn credits towards the unlucky title while still earning the same amount as the center. With the center ring, you will lose the least amount of times. This is, of course, with statistics and the average over a long period of time will look closer and closer to this.

With these numbers (go ahead and check them, maybe I made a mistake), it just makes more sense to stand in a corner ring as you'll earn the most amount of tickets while losing the most amount of games therefore making the best progress possible for both titles.

Corner:
1/9: 55 tickets won
2/9: 15 tickets won
6/9: 0 tickets won
Over 900 attempts:
You will receive 55 tickets 100 times: 5500 tickets
You will receive 15 tickets 200 times: 3000 tickets
You will receive 0 tickets 600 times: 0 tickets
Total:
8500 tickets earned
600 games lost

Side:
1/9: 40 tickets won
3/9: 15 tickets won
5/9: 0 tickets won
Over 900 attempts:
You will receive 40 tickets 100 times: 4000 tickets
You will receive 15 tickets 300 times: 4500 tickets
You will receive 0 tickets 500 times: 0 tickets
Total:
8500 tickets earned
500 games lost

Center:
1/9: 25 tickets won
4/9: 15 tickets won
4/9: 0 tickets won
Over 900 attempts:
You will receive 25 tickets 100 times: 2500 tickets
You will receive 15 tickets 400 times: 6000 tickets
You will receive 0 tickets 400 times: 0 tickets
Total:
8500 tickets earned
400 games lost

ss1986v2 · Feb 24, 2007, 04:02 AM // 04:02

Quote:

Originally Posted by scyfer

Maybe some of us don't have a lot of faith in Anet's RNG?

and some of us do. or at least enough faith to go with probability over small sample size, in game observations. do i know that their RNG is extremely accurate? no. do i have any reason to believe that is so bad as to completely destroy the odds for staying in the corner spot. no. until otherwise noted, why go against the probability?

Parson Brown · Feb 24, 2007, 04:11 AM // 04:11

Quote:

Originally Posted by scyfer

485 tickets lost (~an hr, didn't account for time) on the corner, 2600 (10409 to 13189) lucky points gained, 281 losses gained. Now this is 5.36 lucky points per ticket and 0.58 losses per ticket; this is far different than the calculated win rate on the guild wiki article. Sure, you can argue that this is a string of bad luck lasting for an hour +, but to me this points to some statistically non randomness, even without working out the likelihood/p-values to test whether this result is out of the ordinary with current assumptions.

Meanwhile in the center (I've only started taking down notes): ~20minutes, 35 tickets lost total, 2100 lucky points (exactly, 13189->15289) and 89 unlucky losses earned. Sure ok, a bad streak on the corner and a lucky streak in the center you say? Fine, I'll take more data points down and keep counting, and then compare again.

So far this festival, I spent 6 hours in the same corner ring and right now have 10 more tickets than I started with. While this shows a string of good luck, it certainly doesn't mean the trend will continue.

EDIT: Actually, this is a bit of a problem. Right now, I have 82,093 tickets won (3/5 to next level) and 6,397 games lost (1/5 to next level). I'll need to go play 16 rings for a while to even out those bars!

EDIT2: 20 min later I'm down 270 tix! This all feels so, um, random?

Viruzzz · Feb 24, 2007, 04:54 AM // 04:54

short answer. because people fail at math. or they thing that by getting a higher winning chance (5/9) they get more tickets, and don't actually bother to experiment.

these are the same people who will cause party wipes. the people who don't really have a clue what they are doing, the kind of people that will bring mending everywhere. and healing breeze on a warrior

Meat Axe · Feb 24, 2007, 04:55 AM // 04:55

I don't like the wiki article. I don't understand the bottom bit, where it gives details as to cost and time of each level of both titles together. I don't understand the totals (I will probably feel very stupid after someone explains it, but ahh well). Does it mean it's most benficial to do that much on nine rings and then switch to the other to get the rest of the title? (I found a guide on Guru from the dragon festival that is a lot better at explaining everything)

Anyway, I made up my own mind about it. I've stood on an edge for the last 6 hours while at work, thinking that you win a decent amount, but lose just over half each time. And now my lucky title is twice as far ahead as my unlucky one. So I'm switching to the corner ones.

Pretty pointless post, but if someone could explain what the wiki thing means without making me feel like a complete dolt, that would be fantastic. (I haven't had to use my brain for the past 3 months, alright? I'll feel smarter once I go back to uni next week)

scyfer · Feb 24, 2007, 05:13 AM // 05:13

Quote:

Originally Posted by Viruzzz

short answer. because people fail at math. or they thing that by getting a higher winning chance (5/9) they get more tickets, and don't actually bother to experiment.

these are the same people who will cause party wipes. the people who don't really have a clue what they are doing, the kind of people that will bring mending everywhere. and healing breeze on a warrior

Yeah thanks! That surely accounts for my post *thumbs up* - because you know, I read and question the wiki article (since it is incomplete and well I'm a scientist and demand proof to make sure everything's working correctly in game too - god forbid! other variables existing), so I fail at math and don't bother to experiment ^^

Re: Meat Axe

All the wiki says for 90% of it is how much money and time you need to get to a certain tier for the title, if you stand in the corner. The wiki isn't well written and I don't particularly want to add to it, but here goes with the explaining why they assume all locations are even:

Location | Tickets per win | Tickets from nearby wins |

Center | 25 | 15+15+15+15
Side | 40 | 15+15+15
Corner | 55 | 15+15

So with 9 locations being hit randomly, all locations have the probability of (85 tickets)/9.

So you win the same tickets, standing anywhere, assuming random probability (and imo ~300 games should skew it to pretty random - but it seems to require more like ~3000 games).

Just because I won't accept math as a reason to do something (and require more solid evidence, esp in the case of, oh, buggy games) doesn't mean I don't understand it....

(And my "corner" data was from the western corner, by the banners, which also has fewest people - who's to say all corners are equal ;P)

-----
edit: Ahhh nm

ss1986v2 · Feb 24, 2007, 06:09 AM // 06:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by scyfer

Ok my main point was THIS:

- loses are cheaper in the Rings of Fortune

yes, but the tickets won is rather low. if all you want is the unlucky title, then yes, the fortune game is for you.

Quote:

Originally Posted by scyfer

- all switching to a corner does is make you lose faster and greater numbers of tickets

actually you would lose the same number of tickets per nine rounds that the middle circle loses. by probability, you should win 85 tickets each set, while spending 90, no matter the circle. same number of tickets, just more losses on the corners, which is what you want for the unlucky title.

Quote:

Originally Posted by scyfer

- why wouldn't you stand in the center to save money!?

again, you are not saving money (85 tickets won, 90 loss). the number of tickets won is the same, you just have fewer losses, which isnt good if you want the unlucky title.

Quote:

Originally Posted by scyfer

- the corner strategy is only good for people that want to save TIME not MONEY.

which is exactly what people want to do. it takes weeks of afk farming to max out these titles, while we are usually stuck to playing only 3 days every couple of months. of course ppl want it done fast.

Kook~NBK~ · Feb 24, 2007, 06:10 AM // 06:10

Quote:

Originally Posted by Haggard

But why would you purposely avoid getting 2 titles, instead paying the same amount of money for just one?

I guess they're just not very bright.

scyfer · Feb 24, 2007, 06:17 AM // 06:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by ss1986v2

yes, but the tickets won is rather low. if all you want is the unlucky title, then yes, the fortune game is for you.

actually you would lose the same number of tickets per nine rounds that the middle circle loses. by probability, you should win 85 tickets each set, while spending 90, no matter the circle. same number of tickets, just more losses on the corners, which is what you want for the unlucky title.

again, you are not saving money (85 tickets won, 90 loss). the number of tickets won is the same, you just have fewer losses, which isnt good if you want the unlucky title.

which is exactly what people want to do. it takes weeks of afk farming to max out these titles, while we are usually stuck to playing only 3 days every couple of months. of course ppl want it done fast.

Eh ^^ I have time, tbh, but your post is right, and I need sleep obviously (as the length of my post indicates, insomnia...)

/me wonders again why Anet put these titles in; they're pure grind.

Navaros · Feb 24, 2007, 06:33 AM // 06:33

Quote:

Originally Posted by scyfer

Yeah thanks! That surely accounts for my post *thumbs up* - because you know, I read and question the wiki article

scyfer, I think you'd find that your reason for not standing in the corner is actually quite unique.

For the vast majority of middle-standers, they are there not because they doubt the RNG, but rather they are there simply for the reasons myself and The Ernada and Viruzzz pointed out.